IPC del primer trimestre de 2021 marcaría alza de 1%
- Por Felipe Pinochet.
De acuerdo a las expectativas de distintos economistas, el primer trimestre del 2021 acumularía un alza de 1% en el Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC), y si bien se ubica dentro del promedio de los últimos 10 años, los expertos afirman que para un escenario de desaceleración como el actual es poco habitual que esto suceda.
Según los expertos, para enero y febrero se esperan registros de 0,3%, mientras que para marzo prevén un 0,4%, mostrando un repunte en relación a los meses previos.
Entre las principales razones que explicarían este escenario, se encuentran los mayores recursos del segundo retiro del 10%, que sumado al primero provocaron un mayor impulso a la demanda interna, principalmente de productos de bienes durables, lo que está generando algunos quiebres de stock en productos del comercio como electrodomésticos y autos nuevos. A ello, se suma el precio de los alimentos, que se ha mantenido en niveles altos para la temporada.
Para Martina Ogaz, economista de EuroAmerica, “los principales factores están relacionados a alimentos, verduras y frutas de estación, precios que no han seguido la estacionalidad típica y han registrado aumentos en varios de estos productos”.
“A nivel de productos, los que impulsarán al alza los precios son carnes de pollo y cerdo, que no han bajado en relación al precio internacional. Están, además, la papa, el plátano, la manzana y la pera, entre otros alimentos que se han visto afectados por la sequía y los costos extras por el Covid-19, es decir, medidas preventivas de contagio en la producción”, explicó Ogaz.
Cabe mencionar que, a noviembre, el IPC de los alimentos acumula un alza de 7,4% y 6,8% en 12 meses, siendo la división con mayor incidencia en el registro anual.
Por otro lado, los economistas afirman que el segundo retiro del 10% de los fondos de AFP seguirá presionando los precios de los bienes durables. “Esperamos que impacte mucho más en enero, luego que la entrega de los dineros comenzara en la quincena de diciembre, efecto que esperamos comience a diluirse en los próximos meses”, indicó Ogaz.
Por su parte, Antonio Moncado, economista de Bci, comentó que la mayor perspectiva de inflación “está incidida por el segundo retiro, pero con una expectativa menor a lo que fue el primer retiro”.
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