América Latina sufrió su mayor contracción en dos siglos en 2020
- Por Vicente Iriarte
La economía de América Latina enfrenta la mayor recesión que ha habido en más de dos siglos, la que necesita una mejor política fiscal para garantizar una recuperación sostenida según el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID).
Según las proyecciones del BID, la economía crecerá 4,1% este año a medida que avanzan las vacunaciones y las empresas continúan abriendo, estimando que la contracción del pasado 2020 fue de 7,4%, la mayor en un año desde 1821.
Además, según la institución, América del Sur se encontraría en riesgo de un repunte más moderado a diferencia de Europa y Estados unidos, donde ha habido una aplicación más lenta frente a las vacunas y nuevas cepas del virus, lo que limita la expansión en 2021 a un 0,8%.
Esto significaría que si se continúa en esta línea, habría un retorno a la recesión en 2022 antes de reanudar el crecimiento en 2023, lo cual significaría una recuperación en forma de “W”.
Eric Parrado, economista jefe del BID, señaló que “en 2019, la región volaba con un motor averiado (…) en 2020, el otro motor también recibió un golpe. El desafío que enfrentamos ahora es llevar este avión a un lugar seguro, rescatar a los pasajeros y prepararse para las reparaciones necesarias”.
Durante la pandemia, los gobiernos de la región entregaron casi medio billón de dólares en ayuda fiscal, con paquetes que promediaron alrededor de 8,5% del producto interno bruto.
Eso ayudó a elevar la deuda pública a 72% del producto interno bruto en 2020 desde 58% del año anterior, lo que pronostica que la deuda aumentará a 76% en 2023 según el Banco Interamericano.
Además, el BID agregó que “los países deberían gastar en proyectos con altos beneficios sociales y de crecimiento, construir infraestructura para una economía digital e invertir en un futuro más sostenible para el medio ambiente”.
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