Imacec de octubre registró números negativos y ya son ocho meses consecutivos de contracción
Por Felipe Pinochet.
De acuerdo a lo informado por el Banco Central, la actividad económica medida con el Imacec mostró una variación de -1,2% en octubre, muy por debajo de las proyecciones que, en promedio, esperaban un registro positivo en torno al 0,5%. Con esto, ya son ocho meses de contracción de manera consecutiva. En tanto, la serie desestacionalizada disminuyó 0,5% respecto del mes precedente y cayó 0,9% en doce meses.
Cabe recordar que el mes registró un día hábil menos que octubre de 2019, cuando el Imacec se contrajo 3,4% debido al impacto del estallido social.
Entre los principales factores que indicó el BC que incidieron negativamente en la actividad, se encuentra el sector servicios, que sigue fuertemente afectado por la crisis sanitaria y económica. Esta sección, que explica cerca del 50% del Imacec, se contrajo 4,9% restándole 2,5% al crecimiento del mes afectado principalmente por las caídas de restaurantes y hoteles, transporte y educación. En términos desestacionalizados, es decir, en comparación a septiembre, cayó 3,3%.
Desde Santander indicaron que “la caída de más de 3% mensual de los servicios determinó el magro desempeño del Imacec en el mes. Esta cifra es particularmente llamativa, por cuanto durante octubre se produjo el mayor desconfinamiento en lo que va de la pandemia, lo que debió haber favorecido este tipo de actividades”.
De esta manera, la economía chilena medida con el Imacec registra una contracción de 7% entre enero y octubre. En tanto, en su última proyección revelada este martes 1 de diciembre, la OCDE estimó que el PIB de Chile se contraerá 6% en 2020 y que la actividad se recuperaría a niveles previos a la pandemia a finales de 2022.
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