Mercado mejora proyección de caída del PIB 2020 y mantiene expectativas para el próximo año
- Por Felipe Pinochet
De acuerdo a la Encuesta de Expectativas Económicas (EEE), que difundió este jueves el Banco Central, se espera que el PIB chileno decrezca -5,5% este 2020, frente al 6% estimado en agosto. Se trata de la segunda alza mensual que muestra el sondeo, mientras que la estimación para el próximo año se mantuvo en un alza de 4,5% y se rebajó de 3,2% a 3% la proyección del PIB para 2022.
En ese escenario, el promedio de las expectativas de los expertos apunta a que el Imacec de agosto mostrará una contracción de 8,9%, caída menor al 10,7% de julio.
En cuanto a la inversión, los consultados esperan una caída de 11% este año, que es mejor al cálculo de una baja de 12,10% prevista en agosto pasado. Sobre la tasa de interés referencial en Chile, la EEE proyecta que se mantendría en su mínimo técnico de 0,5% al menos por año y medio.
El organismo rector acordó a fines de marzo recortar la Tasa de Política Monetaria (TPM) a ese nivel en medio de la debilidad de la economía y el incierto panorama por la rápida propagación del coronavirus.
En tanto, los precios al consumidor mostrarían una variación de 0,2% en septiembre y de 2,6% en 11 meses adelante. Por su parte, el dólar se cotizaría en $780 en dos meses y $767 unidades en 11 meses.
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