Gobierno rebaja proyección de crecimiento y prevé caída del PIB de 6,5%

  • Felipe Pinochet.

 

 

El Gobierno estimó que la economía caerá aún más por los efectos de la pandemia del Covid-19 en nuestro país, esto en cuanto a lo que venía proyectando durante el mes de abril (2%), ya que según la Dirección de Presupuestos del Ministerio de Hacienda (Dipres) el desplome sería de un 6,5%, mientras que se estima también que la demanda interna se hundirá en un 9,8%.

 

El Banco Central ya había anticipado que el rendimiento de la actividad este año sería bastante peor al esperado en un comienzo, cambiando sus perspectivas de variación del PIB para este año entre -5,5% y -7,5%, alineándose con la Dipres (sería la mayor contracción en 35 años).

 

La Dipres prevé además que la inflación será de 2,8% este año, en la parte baja del rango de tolerancia del Banco Central de entre 2,0 y 4,0%. En su reporte anterior, el Gobierno estimaba una inflación de 3,3% para este 2020. En cuanto al precio del cobre, se corrigió al alza desde US$2,36 libra a US$2,48 la libra.

 

En tanto, en el escenario fiscal se proyecta que los ingresos efectivos del Gobierno Central total en 2020 se contraerán 16,1% respecto al 2019, y en el gasto público se estima un alza de 11,4% real en relación con la ejecución del año anterior.

 

Desde el Ejecutivo señalan que el objetivo es que los recursos destinados para el plan fiscal sean transitorios y vayan en línea con el consenso de los expertos de estabilizar la deuda en torno a 45% del PIB. El director de Presupuestos, Matías Acevedo, señaló que “si seguimos el camino del acuerdo, de la convergencia, la deuda pública se debería tender a estabilizar en torno a 45% y menos al 2030. Ahora si seguimos gastando como se ha hecho en los últimos años, llegaría a 70%”.

 

Por su parte, respecto de lo estimado para cada año en el Informe de Finanzas Públicas (IFP) anterior, los gastos actualizados crecen en términos reales en 5,5% en lo estimado para 2021; en 1,6%, para 2022; en 0,4%, el 2023; y en 0,3%, el 2024. Con estos datos, se anticipa que el balance fiscal efectivo de 2020 registre un déficit de 9,6% del PIB, que resulta 1,7 puntos porcentuales mayor que lo estimado en el informe anterior. Este sería el mayor déficit fiscal en 48 años.

En cuanto a las variables estructurales, el IFP señala que el déficit estructural este año será de 3,5% del PIB, mientras que para el próximo año se espera un saldo negativo de 4,1% del PIB.

La deuda pública, en tanto, se situará en 34,8% este año para luego subir a 39,6% del PIB al cierre del año 2021, que corresponde al término de la ejecución de la actual administración.

Para el próximo año, en La Moneda esperan un importante rebote de 5,5% en el PIB. De concretarse esas proyecciones y considerando el crecimiento de 4% de 2018 y de 1% de 2019, el Gobierno de Sebastián Piñera anotará una expansión de 1%, registrando el período de más bajo crecimiento desde 1990. Hacia mediano plazo, Hacienda subió la proyección de PIB para el período 2022-2024 desde 3,2% hasta 3,5%.

 

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