Desafío del mercado laboral

Por Jaime Vatter.
Decano Facultad de Ingeniería y Negocios. Universidad de Las Américas.
 
 
La actual situación sanitaria del país ha generado una caída significativa en la actividad económica, con un fuerte impacto en el empleo. La necesidad de confinamiento asociada a la pandemia por el Covid-19, ha generado una detención abrupta del normal funcionamiento de la economía nacional, con múltiples sectores fuertemente afectados. 
 
Esto ya se vio reflejado en el IMACEC de abril, con una caída del 14,1% en doce meses. Si se excluye el sector minería, la caída es del 15,5%. Probablemente en mayo observemos una caída aún mayor. De la misma manera, las últimas proyecciones de variación del PIB en Chile para el año 2020 son entre -4,5% (FMI) y -7,1% (OCDE, si se produce un segundo brote del virus). En definitiva, Chile sufrirá la peor recesión desde la vivida en 1982.
 
En este contexto, las cifras de desempleo que actualmente observamos en el país están lejos de alcanzar sus peores valores. La última información disponible es que, a nivel nacional y en el trimestre móvil febrero-abril, el desempleo alcanzó el 9% (INE). Eso sí, este guarismo fue alcanzado con una baja significativa en la tasa de participación y una caída en el empleo del 7,6%. Es decir, hay una caída significativa en la cantidad de personas trabajando, lo que genera una caída de ingresos para los hogares que es muy relevante.
 
Todo lo anterior nos plantea un gran desafío para lo que viene después de la pandemia. En primer lugar, se hace evidente la necesidad de implementar políticas de apoyo a la creación de trabajo, como los que han planteado el grupo de 16 expertos convocados por el Ministerio de Hacienda (Fase 2: Apertura paulatina y fuerte foco en subsidios al empleo). Pero más allá de estas medidas, muy necesarias, también lo ocurrido en estos meses nos obliga a repensar la forma en que trabajamos, la manera en que preparamos a las futuras generaciones de trabajadores y los mecanismos de capacitación. Una parte de la caída en el empleo simplemente no podrá ser recuperado cuando ocurra la recuperación económica. 
 
Esto, porque la pandemia nos ha mostrado que hay otras soluciones a la forma de trabajar, más tecnológica. En cierta manera, la pandemia aceleró la amenaza que nos traía la muy nombrada revolución industrial 4.0, referida a la digitalización de los procesos industriales.
 
Entonces, el gran desafío para el mercado laboral es, por cierto, apoyar a quienes han perdido su fuente laboral y generar las condiciones para acelerar la recuperación de estos puestos perdidos. Pero como se ha señalado, incluso actuando de la mejor manera en este frente y con una fuerte recuperación el 2021, nos quedaremos con un bolsón de desempleados que tendremos que apoyar en su reinvención laboral. En ese sentido, urge una modernización de los programas de capacitación de SENCE, para que puedan hacerse cargo de la mayor cantidad de desempleados con necesidades muy distintas a las observadas en el pasado.
 
 

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