Personas en situación de pobreza podrían superar los dos millones y desempleo seguiría en aumento por crisis del Covid-19
- Por Felipe Pinochet.
La crisis sanitaria por el Covid-19 golpea cada día más a distintos sectores de la economía del país, situación que también ha provocado un aumento en las tasas del desempleo y afectado fuertemente la calidad de vida de miles de personas. Ante tal escenario, diversos expertos coinciden en que si la situación no mejora durante los próximos meses, los chilenos en situación de pobreza podrían superar los dos millones, es decir, unas 500 mil más que lo registradas por la Casen de 2017.
En la crisis de 2009 la máxima cifra de desempleo fue de 11,9%, pero ahora las expectativas para el peak de la desocupación van desde un 12% a 20%, nivel que se alcanzaría en los meses de invierno y su duración sería aún incierta mientras no se logre controlar la pandemia, números que no se observan desde la crisis de 1982.
La primera entidad que alertó sobre esta situación en nuestro país fue la Cepal, que hace un par de semanas indicó que la tasa de población viviendo bajo la línea de la pobreza podría escalar hasta el 13,7% durante este año, lo que representaría un aumento de casi un millón de personas, considerando la población actual. La Ocde, por su parte, alertaba en marzo que el 53% de los chilenos está en riesgo de caer en la pobreza si deja de percibir por tres meses sus ingresos. El escenario hipotético de entonces hoy se ve como una posible realidad para una gran cantidad de personas.
Para Sebastián Izquierdo, director ejecutivo de Horizontal, el factor crecimiento será clave y la pobreza seguirá aumentando significativamente, ya que “cabe esperarse un aumento de alrededor de 3%, equivalente a más de medio millón de personas. Dicha cifra dependerá tanto de la intensidad como de la duración de la crisis”.
Por su parte, el ex jefe de la División de Políticas Sociales del Ministerio de Desarrollo Social, Luis Díaz, mencionó que las cifras de pobreza aumentarían según el sector y el impacto económico que ha provocado esta pandemia, donde “sectores intensivos en mano de obra, como la construcción y el comercio, que en conjunto aportan más de 2,3 millones de plazas, se han visto muy perjudicados por el Covid-19. Además, el aumento de la pobreza por ingreso será importante, porque aumentará el desempleo, sobre todo en los sectores más populares, los salarios tenderán a bajar y habrá un mayor nivel de desigualdad, el costo de estas crisis no es igual para todos”.
En tanto, el economista de la Universidad Católica, Francisco Gallego, hace referencia a la complejidad de esta crisis sanitaria y sus efectos en los empleos, lo que es clave para poder evitar la pobreza, ya que “esta es una crisis cualitativamente diferente. Es mundial, real, con elementos de oferta y demanda y que se retroalimentan. Esto frena proyectos y destruye empleos con una profundidad nunca antes vista”.
Respecto al aporte del Gobierno para ayudar a las familias más vulnerables, Heidi Berner, académica de la U. de Chile y ex subsecretaria de Evaluación Social, advirtió que el diseño evidencia que algunas personas queden bajo la línea de pobreza, ya que “el Ingreso Familiar de Emergencia, que establece $ 65 mil per cápita, y así un hogar de cuatro personas percibirá una cifra menor a los $ 300.110 que representan la línea de pobreza extrema. Se debió entregar un mismo beneficio para los hogares del 40% más vulnerable, y con un monto más cercano a $ 75 mil per cápita”.
En este escenario, los expertos señalan que los más susceptibles a caer en la pobreza son los hogares con fuerte dependencia de ingresos informales; más numerosas y con personas mayores; y ocupados en rubros con dependencia de interacciones presenciales y del comercio internacional; sumado también el gran número de inmigrantes informales.
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