Sorpresivo aumento de 0,4% del PIB en primer trimestre del año
- Por Felipe Pinochet
Durante la jornada de este lunes 18 de mayo, el Banco Central informó un alza de 0,4% del PIB durante el primer trimestre de 2020 en comparación a igual periodo del año anterior. De esta manera, la economía logra evitar la recesión técnica, esto pese a que se esperaba una caída dado los efectos posteriores al estallido social y la entrada del Covid-19 a nuestro país.
La estimación preliminar del propio ente emisor (en base al Imacec) era de un -0,1% para este periodo, ya que había que considerar el -2,1% del que se venía en el cuarto trimestre 2019, marcado por la crisis social. Pese a esto, las principales actividades que contribuyeron al resultado positivo fueron los servicios financieros, construcción y la minería. Estos dos últimos contribuyeron con un alza de 5,3% y 5,1%, respectivamente.
En tanto, en la inversión la demanda interna cayó 2,6% anual, arrastrada por el consumo de los hogares que presentó la mayor contracción con variación de -2,2%, la que se explica por la suspensión parcial de clases, las restricciones impuestas a la movilidad de las personas y al funcionamiento de establecimientos del comercio, alimentación y actividades de esparcimiento (la principal incidencia negativa proviene del gasto en servicios).
Por su lado, la formación bruta de capital fijo (FBCF) también afectó a la inversión, y mostró un menor crecimiento que los trimestres previos, registrando una variación de 0,4%. A esto también se suma que la actividad comercial bajó a un 1,7%, y el transporte descendió en un 3,4%.
De esta forma, el informe también señala las cifras ajustadas por estacionalidad, índice en que el PIB creció 3,0% respecto al trimestre anterior, resultado que se explica principalmente por la recuperación de las actividades de servicios que registraron resultados negativos en el último balance del 2019, impactado por el estallido social.
El presidente del Banco Central, Mario Marcel, explicó que “si bien la construcción presentó un dinamismo superior al del trimestre anterior, la caída en la inversión en maquinaria y equipos compensó parcialmente este resultado. Finalmente, la variación de existencias incidió a la baja en el resultado, exhibiendo un ratio nulo sobre el PIB, a precios del año anterior”.
De igual manera, el ente emisor en su primer Informe de Política Monetaria (Ipom) de este año, espera que el PIB del país caiga entre 1,5% y 2,5% en 2020. De esta manera, el comportamiento de la actividad este año podría ser el de peor registro desde la crisis de los años ‘80.
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